Dell — Deal Risk Assessment

March 11, 2026 · Dell Opal 2026 · Risk Assessment & Mitigation Plan
Deal Snapshot
Account / Deal
Dell — Dell Opal 2026
Owner
Matt Emerson Payne (AE) · Conor Leary (overlay)
Stage / Target Close
Proposal / 2026-03-27
Size / Strategic Importance
$200,000 / High (enterprise new logo, Jasper displacement, CMS cross-sell)
Key Champion(s)
Evan Greenbaum (responsive, NYC-based, Jasper product owner) · Ryan Schaaf (MarTech Innovation lead, Optimizely “fanboy”)
Current Status
Deal is stalled. Last customer meeting was 41 days ago (1/14 handoff). AE handoff from Cuneyt to Matt/Conor occurred but no evidence of follow-through. POC use cases undefined. NYC onsite not scheduled. Credit usage dropped post-December workshops.
Updated 2026-03-11
Experimentation POC is now active. Matt confirmed on calls 2/20 and 2/24. Debra Greene, Fernando Dalpiaz, and Izabella De Moura are the Exp POC team. POC scoped to Web Experimentation (Adobe Target replacement) via Chrome script injection approach. Opal/content operations POC track is still undefined. Carol (Dell leadership) is applying timeline pressure. R1/R3 risks below are partially resolved for Exp track; Opal track remains stalled.
Total Risks
12
across 6 categories
Known Risks
10
evidence documented
Assumed Risks
2
inferred from signals
Play Code Legend
CodePlay
P1ELT exec bridge (C-suite ↔ C-suite)
P2SLT bridge (VP/Director ↔ VP/Director)
P3Back-channeling / political intel
P4Value / business outcomes workshop
P5Technical / architecture risk session
P6Commercial alignment session
P7On-site
P8Own internal business case structure
P9Customer-facing exec 1-pager
P10Internal exec briefing 1-pager
P11Pricing / term levers
Risk Register
ID Category Risk Evidence Impact Plays Owner & By When
R1 Timing 41 days since last customer meeting — deal is stalled
Known
  • Last meeting note: 2026-01-14 (handoff call)
  • No customer-facing activity since
  • December workshop momentum lost
March 27 close is not achievable without immediate re-engagement. Deal may already be lost to competitor. P7 P4 Matt/Conor — re-engage Evan immediately, this week
R1 3/11 Timing Exp POC active; Opal track still stalled
Known
  • Per 2/20 kickoff and 2/24 POC sync: Matt is engaged with Debra/Fernando on Experimentation
  • No Opal/content operations activity documented post-1/14
  • Evan Greenbaum has not appeared in any meeting notes since handoff
  • March 27 close remains at risk for Opal
Opal close is not achievable without re-engaging Evan and defining Opal POC scope separately from Exp track. P7 P4 Conor — open Opal track independently from Exp POC; re-engage Evan
R2 Value POC use cases still undefined
Known
  • 1/14 handoff: “POC use cases still undefined — need Dell commitment to move forward.”
  • Next step was collaborative use case definition. No evidence it occurred.
No POC scope = no business case = no path to close. Without defined use cases, Dell has nothing to evaluate. P4 P5 Conor — propose content operations POC scope during re-engagement
R3 Political AE handoff execution unclear — 41-day silence
Assumed
  • 1/14: “Matt to email Evan introducing Conor as new Opal lead.”
  • No subsequent meeting notes confirm this happened.
  • No Evan re-engagement documented.
If Evan hasn’t heard from Optimizely in 6 weeks, trust eroded and competitors may have advanced. P7 P3 Matt — confirm handoff status and send intro email if not done, immediately
R3 3/11 Political Matt is active — but only on Exp track, not Opal/Evan
Known
  • Per 2/20 and 2/24 notes: Matt is confirmed active with Debra Greene and Experimentation team
  • Evan Greenbaum does not appear in any post-1/14 notes
  • Handoff intro email to Evan may never have been sent, or Evan is simply not involved in Exp POC
Opal champion (Evan) and budget owner (Ryan Schaaf) are dark. If not re-engaged, Opal evaluation has no internal advocate. P3 P7 Conor — confirm Evan status with Matt; reconnect directly
R4 Technical Credit usage dropped post-workshop — low engagement
Known
  • 1/14: “usage dropped post-workshop — Dell team not self-exploring.”
  • December workshops well-received but no sustained adoption.
Low platform engagement = low internal advocacy. Evan cannot champion what his team isn’t using. P4 P5 Conor — after re-engagement, schedule hands-on use case session
R4 3/11 Technical Opal platform engagement still low; Exp POC team is active but separate
Known
  • Per 2/24 POC sync: Debra raised concern about Opal Dev Agent capabilities but documentation doesn’t exist yet
  • Some newer Opal capabilities are not enabled in Dell’s instance
  • Dev Agent demo to Fernando did not land cleanly — code output did not match expected selector behavior
Opal adoption remains unproven. Exp POC team is engaged but focused on Web Experimentation, not Opal. No content-creation use cases have been exercised. P4 P5 Conor — define Opal use case session with Evan separately from Exp POC; push to enable full Dev Agent capabilities in Dell’s instance
R5 Paper Paper process completely unknown
Known
  • Deal file: Paper Process = “Unknown.”
  • No signals from any meeting on procurement, legal, or security requirements.
Enterprise deal with unknown procurement = unpredictable close timeline. Could add months. P3 P8 Conor — surface paper process during re-engagement call
R6 Commercial Jasper is incumbent and paying — switching cost is real
Known
  • 1/14: “Jasper: Paying customer.” Dell has existing budget allocated to Jasper.
  • Jasper pain (limited brand guidelines) documented but not reinforced recently.
Status quo bias. If Opal evaluation stalls, Dell renews Jasper by default. P4 P9 Conor — position content operations differentiation vs. Jasper during POC scoping
R7 Political No engagement above Evan since handoff
Assumed
  • Decision process: Evan → Ryan → Liana/Liz for budget.
  • Ryan described as “fanboy” but no contact since December.
  • No EB engagement documented.
No budget conversation happening. No internal business case being built above Evan’s level. P2 P3 Matt/Conor — re-engage Ryan Schaaf after Evan reconnect
R7 3/11 Political Carol (Dell leadership) is applying timeline pressure — new signal
Known
  • Per 2/24 POC sync: Carol (Dell leadership) is pressing for the evaluation to move faster
  • Matt referenced a call with Carol where she said “we need this done yesterday”
  • Carol’s role/title not documented but she is above Debra and driving urgency
Carol = potential new EB or exec sponsor. Creating urgency (opportunity) but also risk: compressed timeline may force a decision before Opal track is ready. P2 P3 Conor/Matt — identify Carol’s full name and title; determine if she owns Opal budget or only Exp evaluation
R8 Value Insufficient discovery — vault data is thin
Known
  • Only 2 meeting notes exist for Opal track.
  • MEDDPICC metrics limited to “10% YoY reduction.”
  • No validated pain beyond initial handoff intel.
  • Workshop outcomes not documented.
Cannot build compelling business case without deeper discovery. Flying blind on decision criteria and process. P4 P8 Conor — run proper discovery during re-engagement
R9 New 3/11 Technical Multi-project architecture — critical open question
Known
  • Per 2/24 POC sync: Dell runs 130+ live activities in a single Adobe Target call
  • Optimizely’s multi-project model does not map cleanly
  • Open questions: site-wide tests, cross-page cookie/data persistence, mutual exclusion across projects, code duplication in Project.js
  • Custom snippets identified as mechanism but cannot be implemented within POC scope (Zach)
  • Zach to diagram architecture proposal validated by Simone
If Zach/Simone cannot provide a credible architecture path, Dell cannot envision production deployment. Deal-breaker risk for Exp POC. Opal deal is bundled with Exp outcome. P5 P7 Zach Coulter — deliver architecture diagram (validated by Simone) before next Dell sync; Matt to schedule Simone on architecture call. Due: 2026-03-13
R10 New 3/11 Technical WYSIWYG scrutiny — visual editor must clear a low bar
Known
  • Per 2/24 Exp POC Follow-Up: Dell disabled Adobe Target’s WYSIWYG because it slowed dev team down
  • Devs code all experiments without the Target UI
  • Debra disclosed this as a known failure mode of Adobe
Optimizely visual editor will face skepticism from first use. A poor demo or slow performance during the Friday walkthrough could kill enthusiasm before POC progresses. P5 Zach — ensure Friday demo showcases visual editor speed and code access; address friction proactively
R11 New 3/11 Technical Opal Dev Agent not fully enabled in Dell’s instance
Known
  • Per 2/24 POC sync: Zach walked Fernando through Dev Agent but some newer capabilities were not available
  • Demo result was unexpected — generated code did not map to expected selector behavior
  • Debra flagged documentation gap: no docs exist for Opal’s code writing / Dev Agent feature
If Dell evaluates Opal with an incomplete instance, they will underestimate capabilities. Documentation absence limits self-service exploration and reduces internal advocacy. P5 Conor — confirm with Opal team which Dev Agent features are enabled for Dell; push to enable full capabilities; get documentation ETA. Due: 2026-03-14
R12 New 3/11 Commercial Opal and Exp POC running on separate tracks with no integration story
Assumed
  • Exp POC is active with Debra/Fernando/Izabella
  • Opal (content operations) has no active stakeholder engagement post-1/14
  • Two tracks running independently; no evidence business case connects them
  • Matt is on both but integrated narrative is absent
If Exp POC closes without Opal, the $200K deal value drops substantially. The strongest differentiation (Opal + Exp = unified DXP vs. Adobe) is not being articulated. P4 P8 P9 Conor — build integrated platform narrative for Dell (Opal + Experimentation = one contract, one platform, Adobe displacement); use Exp momentum to open Opal conversation. Due: 2026-03-18
Mitigation Plays — Cross-Mapping
P4
Value / business outcomes workshop
Mitigates: R1 R2 R4 R6 R8 R12 — re-engagement + POC scoping + discovery + integrated platform narrative
P7
On-site
Mitigates: R1 R3 R9 — NYC onsite with Lauren’s Opal team (Evan is NYC-based)
P3
Back-channeling / political intel
Mitigates: R3 R5 R7 — confirm handoff status, surface paper process, Ryan Schaaf engagement, identify Carol’s role
P8
Own internal business case structure
Mitigates: R5 R8 R12 — build business case framework proactively; connect Opal + Exp tracks
P9
Customer-facing exec 1-pager
Mitigates: R6 R12 — Opal vs. Jasper differentiation doc; unified Opal+Exp platform story
P5
Technical / architecture risk session added 3/11
Mitigates: R9 R10 R11 — multi-project architecture with Simone; visual editor prep; Dev Agent enablement
Action Plan — Must-Do Priorities
1 P3 Confirm AE handoff was executed — if not, send Evan intro email immediately
Linked Risks
R1 R3
Owner
Matt Emerson Payne
Original Due
2026-02-25
41 days of silence. If handoff email was never sent, deal is dead until contact is re-established.
3/11 STATUS: Matt is confirmed active on Exp POC calls but Evan Greenbaum has not appeared in any post-1/14 notes. Handoff to Evan remains unconfirmed. This action item is not resolved for the Opal track.
2 P4 Schedule re-engagement call with Evan — propose content operations POC scope
Linked Risks
R1 R2 R4 R8
Owner
Conor
Original Due
2026-02-28
Highest single-action impact. Addresses staleness, defines POC, restarts engagement, and surfaces current competitive state.
3/11 STATUS: No evidence this occurred. Exp POC is running but Evan is absent. Overdue — still critical.
3 P7 Schedule NYC onsite with Lauren’s Opal product team
Linked Risks
R1 R3
Owner
Conor / Matt
Original Due
2026-03-07
Evan is NYC-based. Opal team is NYC-based. In-person builds trust and differentiates from Jasper’s remote-only engagement. Was a planned next step from 1/14 that never happened.
3/11 STATUS: No evidence this occurred. Overdue.
4 P3 Re-engage Ryan Schaaf — get current intel on Dell’s evaluation status
Linked Risks
R7
Owner
Matt
Original Due
2026-03-03
Ryan is the internal champion above Evan. Need to know: is Dell still evaluating? Has Jasper renewed? Has another competitor entered?
3/11 STATUS: No evidence this occurred. Carol (Dell leadership) has surfaced as an exec driver of the Exp POC — but Ryan Schaaf and Evan remain dark. Overdue.
5 P5 Deliver multi-project architecture proposal to Dell — include Simone Added 3/11
Linked Risks
R9
Owner
Zach Coulter (diagram + Simone); Matt (schedule call)
Due
2026-03-13
Dell’s 130+ activity single-call Adobe Target setup is the biggest technical blocker for Exp POC progression. Without this, Dell cannot envision production deployment and Exp deal stalls.
6 P3 Identify Carol’s full name and title; assess her role in budget/decision chain Added 3/11
Linked Risks
R7 R9
Owner
Matt / Conor
Due
2026-03-14
Carol is pressing hard for timeline acceleration — “we need this done yesterday” per 2/24. Title and budget authority unknown. May be the actual EB or an exec sponsor who can accelerate close.
7 P4 P8 Build integrated Opal + Experimentation platform narrative Added 3/11
Linked Risks
R12
Owner
Conor
Due
2026-03-18
Exp POC is live; Opal is dark. If both close together, this is a $200K deal with full Adobe displacement story. If they close separately, the narrative and commercial leverage are lost.
8 P5 Confirm Opal Dev Agent full capability enablement for Dell’s instance Added 3/11
Linked Risks
R11
Owner
Conor (coordinate with Opal team)
Due
2026-03-14
Demo to Fernando on 2/24 was limited by instance configuration. Dell cannot evaluate what they cannot see. Documentation gap compounds this.
Action Plan — Secondary Tasks
Internal Exec Support
No ELT/SLT support required at this time. Priority is re-establishing basic contact and defining POC scope. Exec engagement (P1/P2 to Liana or Liz Matthews) should be planned once Evan and Ryan are re-engaged and POC is in flight.

Updated 3/11: Carol (Dell leadership) is now an identified exec driver of the Exp evaluation. Identify Carol’s full profile before deciding on Optimizely-side exec engagement. Simone (Optimizely lead solutions architect) is being brought in for the multi-project architecture question — this is the right level of internal technical resource to address R9. P2 engagement to Ryan Schaaf remains the next step on the Opal track once Evan is re-connected.
Last Updated: 2026-03-11 — INTERNAL USE ONLY